How to launch prediction markets as an iGaming operator.

Should you build or use a B2B platform?

The first decision for any operator adding prediction markets is infrastructure approach:

Approach	Operator owns	Evidence to request
Build	Venue connectivity, matching/aggregation, controls, settlement, reporting and maintenance	Staffing plan, certification scope, commercial venue rights and jurisdiction path
B2B platform	Operator configuration, integrations, customer operations and approvals	Signed scope, permitted venues, responsibility matrix, delivery evidence and rollback plan
Widget/API	Player journey, account linkage, compliance and data governance around the embedded product	API and white-label rights, KYC/AML split, reporting coverage and data-processing terms

Choose only after comparing the same functional, commercial and regulatory scope. A shorter vendor estimate can omit venue rights, certification or legal authorization; a build estimate can omit ongoing market operations. Record assumptions before comparing cost or time.

Step 1: Choose your liquidity sources

Some prediction-market platforms connect to external venues; others use proprietary pricing or liquidity. Two widely reported venues as of mid-2026 are:

• Polymarket: an on-chain venue included in TRM Labs' multi-venue dataset. The report's $20B+ January volume is an aggregate, not a Polymarket-only figure.
• Kalshi: a US CFTC-designated contract market. KPMG reports $22.9B of 2025 volume and $263.5M of fee revenue; sports produced 89% of Kalshi's fee revenue.
• Other venues: include them only after verifying current commercial rights, API availability, settlement model and target-market permissions.

An aggregator can normalise permitted venue feeds behind one integration, but it does not grant API rights, white-label rights or authorization. Record the contract and jurisdiction for every source.

Step 2: Compliance by jurisdiction

Product structure and target jurisdiction determine the permissions and controls you need:

Jurisdiction	Verified source	What not to assume
Curaçao	CGA / LOK portal	That an existing licence automatically covers a new event-contract product
United Kingdom	UK Gambling Commission	That the absence of a “prediction market” licence means the product is unregulated
United States	CFTC prediction-market FAQ	That a gaming licence or venue API provides the required derivatives-market route
Other European / LATAM markets	Current local law and regulator guidance	That a permission from another jurisdiction is portable

Obtain written product-level advice before committing a launch date. Platform readiness, venue access and legal authorization are separate gates.

Step 3: Wallet and cross-sell setup

This is where the business case is built. Prediction markets are thin-margin on their own. The value comes from cross-sell economics:

• Shared account and wallet: an approved identity record can reduce duplicate onboarding and re-deposit friction, but product-specific eligibility and additional KYC/AML checks still apply where required.
• Cross-sell definition: define eligible funded players, the target product event and observation window before calculating conversion.
• Incrementality: use a comparator or holdout to distinguish new product activity from activity that would have happened anyway.
• LTV treatment: state the horizon, revenue definition, bonus and payment costs, taxes, FX and censoring rules.

Wire the cross-sell at the wallet level, not the product level. When a player's prediction market session ends, the casino should be one tap away — same session, same balance, no friction.

Step 4: Risk configuration

Prediction markets don't require a trading desk but they do require risk configuration:

• Exposure limits per market: set maximum operator exposure before circuit-breaker fires (auto-suspend or re-route to different venue)
• Market suspension triggers: late-breaking news, data feed outages, disputed outcomes
• Settlement workflow: automated for standard outcomes; escalation path for disputed events
• Jurisdiction reporting: regulatory dashboards, AML transaction monitoring, RG flag thresholds

Step 5: Define the launch critical path

Gate	Acceptance evidence
Commercial	Executed venue/provider rights, fee schedule, territories and data-processing terms
Legal	Approved product classification, operator permissions and launch conditions
Technical	Wallet reconciliation, KYC/AML, settlement, suspension, reporting and rollback tests
Operational	Named owners, incident runbook, dispute workflow, responsible-gambling controls and support training
Measurement	Event taxonomy, cohort definitions, holdout/baseline and signed KPI methodology

What to expect in the first 90 days

• Validate funded-user acquisition by source, device, market category and venue.
• Measure settlement latency, suspensions, disputes, failed payments and support contacts.
• Track product sequence across prediction markets, sportsbook and casino on the same account.
• Use a holdout or comparable baseline to estimate incremental net revenue and cannibalization.
• Publish ROI or LTV only after the cohort horizon matures and the full cost model is locked.

Common mistakes to avoid

• Confusing API access with commercial rights: a public endpoint does not grant white-label or redistribution permission.
• Assuming audience mix: category mix differs by venue and period; choose the initial market set from operator demand and approved scope.
• Comparing incomplete timelines: quote delivery, certification, venue onboarding and authorization as separate gates.
• Adding venues without a responsibility map: document settlement, suspension, dispute and outage ownership for each source.
• Publishing first-party results without methodology: every conversion, LTV and ROI claim needs a cohort, denominator, period and limitations.

Continue reading: Prediction markets operator solution — the full Turbo Stars launch package. Prediction markets vs sportsbook — the business model comparison.